Hat tip: Will:
It is widely assumed that political and economic developments cannot be made without a stable security situation. And this, to a large extent, is true. However it does not mean that there is a correlation to be expected between the political-economic situation and security; rather, as the last few months of the surge have shown, they are largely independent of each other. Changes in the political process have not changed the security situation, and improvements in the security have not changed the politics. Previous calls to widen the political spectrum in attempt to improve security had far from the desired effect. The political groups included instead began using violence to put pressure on others to help achieve their political aims. Furthermore, since the surge started overall security has improved, but there have been very few improvements in the political scene, with key legislation (e.g. oil) not being passed. This does not go without explanation. Since February, attendance within the Iraqi parliament has rarely been above two-thirds; when all the surge troops arrived and the most progress was made (the last month) parliament had been adjourned for summer recess; and finally, only until recently did Iraq have a so-called ‘national-unity’ government which would stall at every stepping point (see previous analysis). What these points show is that security and political developments cannot be assessed on the same progress line, and that they should be looked at independently.
[…]
Overall things are looking much better than they did before the surge started. Al-Qaeda has received several blows, especially in Anbar, where they almost cease to exist. The Mehdi Army has now been suspended after the chaos caused in Karabala, and so far this step has proven to be positive. A unified majority government now exists and all opposition has moved out of government. Leaders of the five major blocs in parliament have come together and agreed on some key issues for Iraqi progress. What is required now is for the United States to give Iraq a long term assurance as well as show an unwavering commitment to the current democratic political system, forcing Iraqis into accepting responsibility and moving forward.
As usual, George Bush has misrepresented and undersold his own war plan: The surge is not about political reconciliation, which can no more occur before national security than pregnancy can occur before sex.
Also, there is another potentially auspicious development happening on the political front: Not only is Muqtada al-Sadr denying rumors that he is engaged in talks with the US and UK forces for some kind of prolonged truce agreement (Sadr's denial of something usually proves its veracity), but a number of key Sadrists are planning to break away from the greater Shia bloc in parliament.
Iraq Slogger reports: "If the Sadrists were to withdraw their 30 MPs from the UIA, the governing bloc would be left with 83 seats. In that case, the UIA would still retain its position as the largest bloc in the Parliament, but its majority in coalition with the 53-seat Kurdish Coalition in the 275-seat parliament could be threatened."
(Slogger is now pay-only, and for some reason it doesn't allow you to copy and paste text. Here's the link to the story, though.)
This adds to the credibility of Sadr's courtship of unlikely Anglo-American allies because it means that the notorious "Shia List" might be torn up. If this were to happen then the Iraqi parliament would become more pluralist and a political civil war would be fought within a single sect, previously thought to be marching to the beat of one drum. The Shia would be too busy jockeying for dominance over one another that their ability to wage a coordinated military campaign against the Sunnis would be jeopardized.
The ramifications of these interesting developments cannot be adequately assessed just yet. Other political problems exist, such as the divisiveness between the Iraqi Oil Minister and the KRG over the all-but-scuttled Oil Law. The Kurds have been awarding numerous lucrative oil contracts to Western companies in the north, claiming (correctly) it is its constitutional right to do so, while the minister says it has overstepped its bounds.
As Baghdad burns and its government obsolesces, Suleimaniyah and Irbil thrive.