Dispatches From the Next War

Today’s Yediot Acharanot contains a lengthy article (thus far unposted and untranslated on the web) on a recent meeting between Minister of Strategic Affairs Avigdor Liberman and NATO commanders in which he was reportedly told that, due to American and European forces being bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq, Israel will have to act alone against Iran’s nuclear program. One of the more interesting aspects of the article was not the fact that Israel will have to go it alone (again) but rather than there now appears to be a total consensus among the military powers that be that Iran’s nuclear program is military in nature and has to be dealt with by force. Liberman was also apparently told that a unilateral Israeli strike against Iran will meet with support and approval from NATO and its constituent nations, which, if true, would represent something of a watershed in Israel’s international relations, considering the outpouring of condemnation (now conveniently forgotten) against Israel’s bombing of the Osirak reactor some two decades ago.

In some ways, of course, it’s to both Israel and NATO’s advantage that Israel act without active collaborators. It keeps NATO forces from having to get involved in another Middle East conflict which could conceivably spiral out of control and insulates the nations involved from the political wrath of the Muslim world and possible use of the oil weapon. Whether a unilateral Israeli strike is militarily feasible remains a debated issue, but the recent appointment of Ehud Barak to the Defense Ministry does suggest that certain political considerations are being set aside in anticipation of a major crisis. On the other hand, Yediot reported yesterday that reserve units are being stretched to the limit and the Chief of Staff is complaining about budget cutbacks. As per usual, chaos rules in the interim.