I wrote back in February that the surge was a viable strategy for securing Iraq because it had little to do with added troops but much to do with the attendant application of them as counterinsurgents. David Petraeus literally wrote the book on counterinsurgency, and while there is of course still carnage and misery in and around Baghdad, there have also been noticeable and marked improvements. Anbar Province, once the reptile pit of Al Qaeda, is virtually pacified now:
In Anbar, meanwhile, violence has dropped dramatically in recent months because of the cooperation of local tribes — a trend that could allow for a smaller U.S. presence there in the future, Odierno said. "We have less attacks in Anbar than in any other region," he said.
In Baghdad, sectarian killings have fallen dramatically since January, while suicide bombings using vehicles have increased. Overall, attack patterns varied in different parts of Baghdad. For example, in Mansour to the west, extrajudicial killings fell in February only to increase again by April, while other attacks remained on average the same. In the Rasafa district of central Baghdad, weekly attacks went from 88 in January to 25 in February but are now at about 60.
If Kevin Drum sounds guardedly optimistic, it's not because the surge will — or was ever intended to — eliminate all violence in Iraq, but because it's still the only chance we have to keep the country from falling apart. Credit goes to a Democratic Congress, which, by its toothless but persistent demand for a timetable for military withdrawal, has all but ensured that the administration knows it has one last chance to get it right:
The fact remains that five battalions is the best we can do, Petraeus is probably the best general available for this job, and congressional threats really are providing incentives to Iraqi leaders to resolve their differences. This is why I suspect that September might really be September. Given the current conditions — the best ones it's reasonable to hope for at this point — if there isn't serious political progress in the next few months there are a fair number of nondelusional Republicans who are finally going to decide that they aren't willing to flush their careers down the toilet just to show solidarity with a lame duck president.
My problem, though, with saying that "September" is going to be the fulcrum moment for Iraq is that it plainly is not, at least according to Petraeus's own estimate for judging the success of a sustained counterinsurgency. It might take well over a year before the long-term threats of sectarian fighting — and now, with Mutqada al-Sadr jockeying to remain the head of the Mahdi Army, sectarian in-fighting — are reduced to within livable circumstances.
RELATED: The Surge Can Work [Jewcy]